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I'm not sure how I feel on this.....
By:  pudds (Canadian; 16962)
Posted on: 01-13-2020 13:19.
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Reddit (and now you) seem pretty convinced this is light, but my first reaction was that it was (justifiably) pretty harsh.

It's hard to quantify exactly what kind of impact something like this would have, and it's not the first time something like this has been tried either.

Several other teams (Red Sox with the Apple watch, for one) have been busted doing similar things, albeit less successfully.

The draft picks thing is pretty huge, I think. Baseball draft picks are more random than in other sports I'd say (or at least more delayed), but the top 4 picks over 2 years is big.

Imagine what kind of player would have to be available for a team to trade those away, for example.

Here's one way you could look at it - Fangraphs assigns a value to draft picks based on historical production from those picks. If you figure the Astros end up picking around 25th (and then 50th) in each draft, that puts the values at $12M and $6M. That's roughly 2 WAR on the open market per season, or 4 packaged together.

Would you trade those 4 picks for say, Freddie Freeman or Anthony Rizzo? And would that be more or less valuable than what they got out of banging the garbage can?

No one can really say for sure, but my gut says that teams wouldn't give up those picks for either of those guys, even though they are very good, and my gut also says that either of those guys would help a team more overall than knowing when a change up was coming.

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